Leader Statements and the Effect of Accommodative and Coercive Language in Interstate Conflict

Journal of Global Security Studies, Volume 8, Issue 1, March 2023

Abstract:

Do leaders’ statements influence the trajectory of interstate conflicts? More specifically, do coercive or accommodative statements influence immediate deterrence and reconciliation? This study expands upon the contributions of McManus (“Fighting Words: The Effectiveness of Statements of Resolve in International Conflict,” Journal of Peace Research 51, no. 6 [2014]: 726–40) by measuring the presence of coercive and accommodative language in US presidential statements and examines whether these types of statements are associated with conflict events during militarized interstate disputes. Accounting for endogeneity, the findings suggest that higher rates of coercive statements deter adversaries from engaging in the use of military force, while higher rates of accommodative statements induce the adversary into negotiations. Importantly, coercive statements do not appear to incite hostilities through provocation, nor do accommodative statements appear to invite escalation by signaling weakness.

Publication

Pre-Print

Naming Names: UN Security Council Resolution Sentiment in Civil Wars

In Handbook on Peacekeeping and International Relations, Edited by Han Dorussen, Edward Elgar Publishing

(with Michelle Benson)

Abstract:

In the chapter, we describe the nature, process, and dimensions of UNSC resolutions. Using an original dataset on UNSC resolutions paired with UCDP/PRIO civil conflicts, we provide information on the distribution of UNSC resolutions across time and civil conflict countries. Finally, we illustrate how resolutions vary in terms of UNSC sentiment towards conflict actors. These data, we suggest, can provide insight into the UNSC and be utilized to explain its behavior.

Publication

Pre-Print

The United Nations After 75: Assessing Current Understandings, Charting Fruitful Research Agendas

International Peacekeeping, Volume 29, Issue 4, Pages 551-623

(with Zuhaib Mahmoud, Kyle Beardsley, Christopher Newton, Chhandosi Roy, & Jacob Kathman)

Abstract:

From its capacity for deploying joint operations in conflict zones to its status as a standard-bearing forum for international behaviour, the United Nations has asserted its relevance in a diverse array of issues and conflicts around the world. Equally as diverse has been the scholarship surrounding the United Nations over the past several decades. This collection of essays provides a snapshot of these diverse lines of scholarship, highlighting existing scholarship on a range of topics, as well as identifying areas of opportunity for future scholarly work on these topics. Taken as a whole, this forum more broadly provides insight into core pillars of the United Nations' mission -- including the maintenance of peace and security; fostering friendly relations between nations; promoting human rights and humanitarian goals; and encouraging cooperation and harmonization of interests between nations. Moving forward, it is our hope that this collection will serve as a sprigboard for inspiring future work to both build and expand upon the insights from the past several decades of scholarship on the United Nations.

Publication