The Efficacy of Air Power in Counterinsurgency

Security Studies, Volume 31, Issue 2, Pages 218-250

(with Christopher Newton)

Abstract:

Since 2001, the United States has relied upon airstrikes in its global counter-terrorism campaign against insurgencies throughout the world. With advances in airstrike technology, public opinion growing increasingly intolerant of deployments of ground-forces abroad, and proliferation of terrorist groups around the world, the use of airstrikes appears to be the future of U.S. counter-terrorism policy. This study tests the efficacy of airstrikes as a counterinsurgency tool by geo- coordinating U.S. airstrike data and merging it with three major databases on conflict events to assess whether airstrikes influence the rate of insurgent attacks. Our analysis reveals that airstrikes reduce insurgents’ capacity to carry out attacks over the long-term. At the same time, airstrikes carry a short-term, provocative effect on insurgent attacks when they result in civilian fatalities. Finally, there is some evidence that airstrikes increase attack attempts, but these attempts are not always successful, nor directed towards government forces.

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