The Efficacy of Air Power in Counterinsurgency

Security Studies, Volume 31, Issue 2, Pages 218-250

(with Christopher Newton)

Abstract:

Since 2001, the United States has relied upon airstrikes in its global counter-terrorism campaign against insurgencies throughout the world. With advances in airstrike technology, public opinion growing increasingly intolerant of deployments of ground-forces abroad, and proliferation of terrorist groups around the world, the use of airstrikes appears to be the future of U.S. counter-terrorism policy. This study tests the efficacy of airstrikes as a counterinsurgency tool by geo- coordinating U.S. airstrike data and merging it with three major databases on conflict events to assess whether airstrikes influence the rate of insurgent attacks. Our analysis reveals that airstrikes reduce insurgents’ capacity to carry out attacks over the long-term. At the same time, airstrikes carry a short-term, provocative effect on insurgent attacks when they result in civilian fatalities. Finally, there is some evidence that airstrikes increase attack attempts, but these attempts are not always successful, nor directed towards government forces.

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The Importance of UN Security Council Resolutions in Peacekeeping Operations

Journal of Conflict Resolution, Volume 66, Issue 3, Pages 473-503

(with Michelle Benson)

Abstract:

The influence of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping in civil conflict has received important consideration in a growing body of literature. Little research, however, has focused on UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions and their ability to determine and affect peacekeeping. New data on UNSC resolutions coded to UCDP/PRIO internal conflicts with peacekeeping operations (PKOs) is presented here. The data illustrate that resolutions vary importantly across conflicts and missions regarding their timing, sentiment towards rebel and government factions, level of action, mandates, authorized force levels, and substantive policies. Through a series of negative-binomial regressions using conflict-month replication data (Hultman, Kathman, and Shannon, 2013), we demonstrate that PKOs with both higher troops levels and a higher intensity of anti-rebel resolutions experience a significant reduction one-sided rebel violence against civilians. In short, UNSC resolutions differ importantly before and during peacekeeping operations and may have an important impact on PKO effectiveness in civil conflict.

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Ideological Motives and Taxation by Armed Groups

Conflict Management and Peace Science, Volume 39, Issue 3, Pages 333-350

(with Jori Breslawski)

Abstract:

Which armed groups are the most likely to tax civilians? A common assumption is that armed groups only tax civilians when they lack access to other sources of revenue. However, recent insights have pointed to the fact that economic considerations are not the only influence on groups’ decisions to tax civilian populations. In this article, we argue that armed groups with a communist ideology are more likely to tax civilians than other groups because it serves as a testament to their ideological goals. We conduct a statistical analysis of armed groups operating from 1990 to 2015 and find support for our argument.

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